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ClimateProbityReference ProjectWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference ProjectWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference Project Effort-sharingTidewayComparable Effort in a LowYearingWorld NationalPearlyShares: The Mitigation Gap – Domestic Actions & International SupportWell-nighthe Comparable Effort WorksheetWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference Project Resource-sharing ApproachWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference Calculator ClimateProbityReference Calculator information Definition, sourcing, and updating of the emissions baselines The ClimateProbityReference Calculator database Three salient global mitigation pathways, assessed in light of the IPCC stat budgets The disaggregation of the EU pledges The deeper technical documentation ClimateProbityPledge Scorecard The Calculator itself Civil SocietyProbityReview of INDCs National INDC Assessments Who we are Feedback and Bug ReportsWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference ProjectWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference Calculator Civil SocietyProbityReview The Calculator itself We provided the wringer and technical support for TheProbityReview of the current round of countries' climate pledges undertaken by a unprecedented coalition of global Civil Society Organizations. Click here to read to the Summary or the Full Report. AboutRead increasingly well-nigh the ClimateProbityReference Project and it's ClimateProbityReference Framework immediately below.Learn increasinglyWell-nighthe CalculatorLearn increasingly well-nigh how to use the interactive ClimateProbityReference calculator and well-nigh the methodology, data sources etc overdue it.Learn increasingly The CalculatorLaunch the interactive ClimateProbityReference Calculator to explore the framework yourself.Launch CERcWell-nighthe ClimateProbityReference Project The ClimateProbityReference Project (CERP) is a long-term initiative designed to provide scholarship, tools, and wringer to whop global climate probity – as a value in itself and as a realist path towards an would-be global climate regime. The CERP is strongly rooted in current climate science, in particular the IPCC’s estimates of the remaining global stat budget. It is moreover resulting with the UN Framework Convention’s core probity principles, which can be concisely stated as “a precautionary tideway to adequacy,” “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities,” and “equitable wangle to sustainable development.” This site offers explanations of the CERP effort-sharing framework, as well as an online ClimateProbityReference Calculator that allows users to interactively explore user-defined implementations of that framework. Importantly, it moreover offers a set of INDC assessments that is based upon the outputs of that calculator. While these assessments are made relative to an indicative “equity band” that is bounded by two pre-defined “equity settings” (“High Equity” and “Low Equity”), the online Calculator allows, and indeed encourages, users to segregate their own preferred probity settings. A few key points The CERP tideway is designed to be general, to encompass a wide set of probity approaches, to express these approaches by way of straightforward and objective indicators, and to unmistakably present their implications with respect to national pearly shares of a worldwide global effort. At the same time, it is precise unbearable to quantitatively evaluate and compare national contributions to the common effort, as they are stuff tabled in the international climate negotiations. In all this, there are a small number of key points to alimony in mind: The CERP tideway is a dynamic one. For each nation in each year, indicators of and , together with a variety of macro-economic data that together pinpoint national minutiae need (estimated by way of a ) are used to calculate a , or RCI. The word-for-word definitions of responsibility, capacity, and minutiae need, and the relative weighting given to responsibility and capacity, are chosen by the user. The national RCI is then used to determine the national of the , which is moreover based on a global “no policy baseline” and on the user’s choice of a . The pursuit figure illustrates the method here, by showing a global mitigation requirement that is partitioned into national fair shares, which are prescribed to individual countries on the understructure of their dynamically shifting responsibility and capacity. Globally required mitigation (blue area) divided among countries in proportion to their share of global responsibility and capacity. (The example here, and it is only an example, features the “Strong 2°C” global mitigation pathway and the “medium equity” settings. See the NationalPearlyShares report for an overview set of illustrative cases.) The Responsibility andTopicsIndex can moreover quite properly be used to estimate national pearly shares in a global version effort. Not that it can help us to estimate the global , or the version need of any given country, but it does offer a way to think well-nigh national pearly shares of any monetized, global, climate-related effort. (Global adaptation need is properly estimated as a function of projected temperature transpiration and national vulnerability. At the moment, in the Calculator, all we offer is a user-defined parameter that is specified as a percentage of projected Gross World Product.) Critically, national fair shares of the global mitigation requirement are not seen in domestic terms. The CERP views climate as a global meals problem that can only be solved within a high-cooperation international regime. Such a regime can only be established if each Party sees others to be doing their pearly shares in the squatter of the worldwide challenge. In practice, of course, each country will decide, on the understructure of its own specific considerations (e.g. it’s own view of costs, co-benefits and political-economic tradeoffs) what fraction of its pearly share of the global mitigation effort it will struggle domestically, and what fraction it will make off shore” by supporting mitigation action in other countries. Key Links The ClimateProbityReference Calculator The ClimateProbityReference Calculator is a interactive online probity reference tool that systematically applies CERP’s Effort-sharing Approach, with the goal of permitting users to quantitatively examine the problem of national pearly shares in a global effort to rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This approach can be unromantic using a range of mitigation pathways, “Equity Settings,” and other assumptions. Whichever are chosen, they are unromantic to all countries, in a dynamic malleate that reflects the waffly global economy. NationalPearlyShares: The Mitigation Gap – Domestic Actions & International Support The NationalPearlyShares report is a systematic struggle to apply CERP’s Effort-sharing Approach to a set set of twelve representative countries and a selected set of illustrative “cases.” These cases are regional by a “high equity” specimen and a “low equity” case, which together define an illustrative probity band.Towageof National INDCs The ClimateProbityReference Framework is designed to support the meaningful wringer of national climate whoopee pledges, relative to the global rencontre and relative to other national pledges. Our initial towage of the national INDCs illustrates some of the possibilities of applying probity reference frameworks to national pledges. In this assessment, importantly, the probity and yearing of individual INDCs are examined within the CERP’s Resource-sharing Approach, as well as within its Effort-sharing Approach. Historical Note This project is an incubation vastitude our older GreenhouseMinutiaeRights project. It provides a increasingly unstipulated tideway to a dynamic probity reference framework, and is focused on highlighting those results and conclusions that are worldwide wideness a wide range of perspectives. In the calculations here, responsibility – contribution to the climate problem – is specified as the sum of all emissions respective to consumption whilom the user-specified minutiae threshold (as is the specimen with capability). Emissions respective to consumption unelevated that threshold are not included in the numbering of responsibility, as they are exempted on the grounds of, say, stuff associated with vital or survival consumption. Responsibility is measured cumulatively since some user-specified start date. (To the extent that emissions surpassing the start stage unsalaried to current capability, they are rumored for implicitly in the sufficiency measure.) In gingerly national pearly shares, responsibility and sufficiency (a simple average, in the default case, though the weighting can be changed) are combined to compute a Responsibility andSufficiencyIndex. This calculator defines capability in income terms. It allows the user use a progressive definition, in that it is possible to pinpoint a level of income (a minutiae threshold) unelevated which income does not count toward capability, similar to the way typical income tax schedules do not tax income unelevated a unrepealable exemption level. In this calculator, national sufficiency is calculated as the sum of all individual incomes, excluding income unelevated the minutiae threshold. Capability is measured in market mart rate (MER) terms, while the minutiae threshold is expressed in Purchasing power parity (PPP) terms and then converted to country-specific values using the ratio of MER and PPP mart rates towardly to each country. This sufficiency is combined with responsibility to summate a Responsibility and Capability Index, which is taken as a measure overall obligation to act. For increasingly information, see The ClimateProbityReference Project tideway toProbityBenchmarking. The minutiae threshold defines an income threshold unelevated which an individual's income, whatever country they may reside in, is taken to be exempt from the numbering of national pearly shares. Which is to say that income unelevated the minutiae threshold is not taken to contribute to national capability, nor are emissions respective to consumption unelevated this threshold taken to contribute to national responsibility. This threshold can be set between $0 and $20,000 per person per year (in Purchasing Power Parity terms). For reference, a minutiae threshold of $7,500 PPP per person per year, which is a bit whilom a reasonably-defined global poverty line based on empirical observations, is the standard setting presented to the user. Lower settings can be informative, but very low settings are difficult to justify as equitable. Countries like India, which are home to large populations of very poor people, are considered to have much increasingly sufficiency when the minutiae threshold is set to $0 than when it is set to $7,500, but this is only vestige of the problematic nature of such settings. Think of income tax systems, and consider that developed countries scrutinizingly universally “exempt” extremely poor people from their tax bases. Very low minutiae thresholds are inconsistent with the conventional progressive tideway that virtually all societies have unexplored for the purpose of income taxation, and they are difficult (if not impossible) to justify in equity terms. For increasingly information, see The ClimateProbityReference Project tideway toProbityBenchmarking. See moreover Luxury Threshold. The Responsibility andSufficiencyIndex (RCI) combines measures of responsibility and sufficiency (using a user-specified weighting) into a combined indicator of national obligation. The RCI is then used to straightforwardly summate each country's pearly share of the global climate effort -- a country's pearly share of the global effort (say, in total tons of mitigation required) is proportional to its RCI. A country's RCI is unauthentic by its income distribution, considering both responsibility and sufficiency are calculated in terms of a user-specified minutiae threshold. For any non-zero minutiae threshold, the resulting effort-sharing allocation, if interpreted as a climate tax, is mildly progressive. in other words, a dollar of income that is just whilom the minutiae threshold is “taxed” at the same rate as a dollar earned by a billionaire. For increasingly information, see The ClimateProbityReference Project tideway toProbityBenchmarking. A nation's overall pearly share of the global climate effort is calculated as a percentage of that global effort -- whether mitigation or adapation related -- and is based on the country's share of the global responsibility for causing climate transpiration and sufficiency for addressing it. These are expressed in a Responsibility and Capability Index, which is calculated based on user's own preferred interpretation of national responsibility and capability. These preferences are set in the panel to the left labeled Calculator Settings, and a cadre subset of them are moreover wieldy in theProbitySettings panel. Critically, a nation's fair share is not seen in domestic terms, though its mitigation potential of undertow is. The CERP views climate as a global meals problem that can only be solved within a high-cooperation international regime. Such a regime can only be established if each Party sees others to be doing their pearly shares in the squatter of the worldwide challenge. In practice, of course, each country will decide, on the understructure of its own specific considerations (e.g. it’s own view of costs, co-benefits and political-economic tradeoffs) what fraction of its pearly share of the global effort it will struggle domestically, and what fraction it will make off shore” by supporting action in other countries. The global mitigation requirement is the “mitigation gap” between emissions under a global Business-as-Usual pathway and emissions under the specified global mitigation pathway. In any given year, for any given BAU and mitigation pathway pair, this gap can be expressed as a number of Gigatonnes of CO2 or CO2equivalent. This is the number of tons to be mitigated in that year. This global mitigation requirement can be allocated to individual countries, in proportion to their Responsibility and Capability Index, to determine their pearly share of the global mitigation effort. A mitigation pathway is a global emissions trajectory that is designed to, over time, alimony the climate system within a given stat budget, or to alimony temperature increases unelevated a unrepealable limit. The increasingly stringent the numismatic or temperature limit, the higher the level of global ambition. The ClimateProbityReference Calculator supports three mitigation pathways. They range from the 1.5ºC standard pathway, which is an emergency mitigation pathway by any definition, to the G8 pathway, which is based on the (politically influential) targets specified in the G8’s 2009 Declaration in the Italian town of L’Aquila. The 1.5ºC standard pathway is based on the 1.5ºC pathway published by ClimateWhoopeeTracker, and is unscientific to have a greater than or equal to 50% probability of staying unelevated 1.5ºC in 2100. The pathway is based on the median of the scenarios reported in the IPCC’s FifthTowageReport (WGIII) that have at least a 50% probability of staying unelevated 1.5ºC. CAT reports a single all-gas median pathway; we disaggregate it into Fossil CO2, LULUCF and non-CO2 pathways using the non-CO2 pathway from RCP 2.6. The 2°C standard pathway is based on the 2ºC pathway published by ClimateWhoopeeTracker, and is unscientific to have a greater than 66% probability of staying unelevated 2ºC in 2100. The pathway is based on the median of the scenarios reported in the IPCC’s FifthTowageReport (WGIII) that have at least a 66% probability of staying unelevated 2ºC. CAT reports a single all-gas median pathway; we disaggregate it into Fossil CO2, LULUCF and non-CO2 pathways using the non-CO2 pathway from RCP 2.6. The G8 pathway, for its part, is not calibrated to a specific temperature threshold, but is based on the politically influential targets specified in the G8’s 2009 Declaration in the Italian town of L’Aquila. The L’Aquila text specifies only that the peak must be “as soon as possible” and omits the reference year versus which goal the 50% global reductions by 2050 is to be calculated. In our rendering, its peak year is 2020, and the maximum yearly rate of post-peak emissions ripen is 6.0%. (The late peak requires very rapid reductions in order to reach its 50% in 2050 specification, and this despite its relatively larger budget.) The pathway's 2012 to 2100 CO2 budget is ~1600 GtCO2, which is well whilom the largest of the IPCC's budgets, the one that is given a 33% endangerment of staying unelevated 2ºC. One can safely say that it is “very likely” to exceed 2ºC by 2100. For much increasingly information on all of this, including a comparison of these pathways to the IPCC's emissions budgets, see the Mitigation Pathway Overview. In these calculations, a country or region’s share of the Global Mitigation Requirement is proportional to its Responsibility and Capability Index. The Responsibility and Capability Index can moreover quite properly be used to estimate national pearly shares in a global version effort. Not that it can help us to estimate the global adaptation need, or the version need of any given country, but it does offer a way to think well-nigh national pearly shares of any monetized, global, climate-related effort. (Global adaptation need is properly estimated as a function of projected temperature transpiration and national vulnerability. At the moment, in the Calculator, all we offer is a user-defined parameter that is specified as a percentage of projected Gross World Product.) The ClimateProbityReference Project is a project of EcoEquity and the Stockholm Environment Institute © 2006-2015 Feedback or Bug Report | Who we are